10Y-2Y Treasury Spread
Yield curve slope (10-year minus 2-year), daily
The 10Y–2Y spread is one of the most watched yield curve signals. When the spread turns negative (an inversion), it often reflects expectations for slower growth and future policy easing. Traders use it to frame recession risk, rate-path pricing, and the macro backdrop for equities and credit.
Historical Yield Curve Chart
Related Indicators
How to interpret the 10Y–2Y curve
What inversion is really saying
An inversion doesn’t “cause” a recession. It reflects the market’s belief that the Fed will have to cut rates in the future because growth and inflation will cool. In practice, it’s a signal about the expected path of policy and the terminal rate versus the near-term policy stance.
Why it matters for risk assets
Persistent inversion often coincides with tighter financial conditions, weaker bank credit creation, and lower forward growth expectations. That tends to challenge cyclicals and leveraged credit while supporting higher-quality duration — until the pivot/re-acceleration phase.
Steepening can mean two things
A curve can steepen because long rates rise (growth/inflation repricing) or because short rates fall (cuts). The first is often risk-on; the second can be risk-off if it’s driven by deteriorating growth. Context matters.
Use it with confirmation
Pair the curve with credit spreads (HY), jobless claims, and financial conditions. A tight curve signal + widening spreads is a much stronger warning than the curve alone.
Current Reading
Interpreting the Signal
Best cross-check
If the curve inverts while high yield spreads stay tight and NFCI remains easy, recession risk may be lower than the curve suggests. When spreads and conditions tighten with the curve, the signal strengthens.
Release Notes
Updated daily using Treasury yields. The spread can move quickly around CPI, Fed events, and risk shocks.
- Frequency: Daily
- Unit: Percent (%)
- Definition: 10-year yield minus 2-year yield