Crude Oil (WTI)
WTI spot price (Cushing), dollars per barrel
WTI crude sits at the center of macro. It impacts headline inflation, household cash flow, corporate margins, and geopolitics. Oil can be “risk-on” when it rises with strong demand, but it can be “risk-off” when it rises because supply is constrained — especially if inflation is already sticky.
Historical WTI Chart
Related Indicators
How to interpret WTI
Demand vs supply
The most important question is why oil is moving. Demand-driven rallies can signal stronger growth and risk-on momentum. Supply-driven spikes can be stagflationary and tighten financial conditions.
Inflation linkage
Oil feeds directly into gasoline and indirectly into goods and services via transportation and input costs. A sustained move higher can complicate disinflation and keep policy restrictive longer.
Consumer cash flow
Higher gas prices act like a tax on consumers, especially lower-income households. That can pressure discretionary spending and show up in sentiment and savings.
Cross-checks
Pair oil with inflation prints, the dollar, and credit spreads. If oil rises while spreads widen, the move is often interpreted as restrictive.
Current Reading
Interpreting the Signal
Best cross-checks
Watch inflation, the dollar, and credit spreads. Oil’s macro impact depends on whether it is a demand signal or a supply shock.
Release Notes
Updated daily. Oil can move sharply on geopolitics, OPEC policy, inventory data, and risk sentiment.
- Frequency: Daily
- Unit: $/barrel
- Benchmark: WTI spot