PCE Price Index
Monthly personal consumption expenditures price index level (2017=100), seasonally adjusted
The PCE Price Index is the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve targets most directly. It is built from actual consumer spending patterns and is regularly revised as better data arrives. In practice, PCE inflation is a core input to how markets price the Fed’s reaction function — and that flow-through matters for rates, equities, credit, and USD.
Historical PCE Price Index Chart
Related Indicators
Why PCE Matters (and how it differs from CPI)
What PCEPI Measures
PCEPI tracks the prices of goods and services purchased by households. Unlike CPI, it allows for substitution (people shift spending when relative prices change), and its weights come from business surveys and national accounts rather than household surveys.
Fed Targeting
The Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation objective is defined in terms of PCE inflation. That makes PCE a direct input into the policy narrative and the rate path markets price.
Revisions & Smoothing
PCE data is revised over time as source data improves. Traders should treat one-off surprises with caution and focus on trend confirmation, especially when base effects are large.
How it connects to markets
Sticky PCE inflation tends to push real yields higher and tighten financial conditions. Cooling PCE supports the “soft landing” path and can relieve pressure on growth-sensitive assets.
Current Reading
Interpreting PCE
Macro context
PCE is the inflation series most directly tied to the Fed’s mandate. Use it as the “ground truth” for inflation regime, then cross-check CPI/PPI for timelier pipeline signals and composition changes.
Release Schedule
PCE inflation is released monthly with the Personal Income & Outlays report (typically near month-end for the prior month).
- Frequency: Monthly
- Unit: Index (2017=100)
- Source family: BEA national accounts