Credit Card Delinquency Rate
Percent of credit card loans that are delinquent at commercial banks (quarterly)
Credit card delinquency is a clean, late-cycle stress signal: it tends to rise when households are stretched, real wages lag, and excess savings burn off. It’s not a “recession trigger” by itself — but persistent increases can widen credit spreads, pressure consumer-sensitive equities, and strengthen the case for tighter lending standards.
Historical Delinquency Chart
How to interpret credit card delinquency
What the series measures
This series tracks the share of credit card loans at commercial banks that are delinquent (past due). It is reported quarterly and typically moves with household balance sheet strain, labor market conditions, and the availability/cost of revolving credit.
Why it matters for markets
Rising delinquencies can tighten bank risk appetite and lending standards, which feeds into consumption and corporate revenue. In practice, it can show up as: higher credit card APR spreads, weaker retail earnings, and a more defensive tape.
Cycle timing
Delinquency is often a lagging-to-coincident macro stress signal. It tends to rise after financial conditions tighten and job growth cools. That makes it especially useful for confirming whether a slowdown is bleeding into household credit health.
Watch the rate of change
The absolute level matters, but the acceleration matters more. A fast rise from a low base often signals a regime shift in household cash flow. Pair it with jobless claims, wage growth, and consumer sentiment.
Current Reading
Interpreting the Signal
Best cross-checks
Pair this with consumer loan delinquency, initial jobless claims, and measures of lending standards. If delinquencies rise while financial conditions are already tight, the downside tail usually grows.
Release Notes
This series is reported quarterly and may lag current conditions. Use it as a confirmation tool, not a day-to-day catalyst.
- Frequency: Quarterly
- Unit: Percent (%)
- Sector: Commercial banks