Consumer Sentiment
University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, monthly
Consumer sentiment is a fast-moving read on confidence and inflation psychology. While “soft” data can diverge from “hard” spending in the short run, persistent sentiment weakness often coincides with tighter financial conditions and slower demand — and it can be especially important when the labor market begins to cool.
Historical Sentiment Chart
Related Indicators
How to interpret consumer sentiment
Soft data vs hard data
Sentiment is survey-based and can be emotional, influenced by prices and headlines. It can diverge from actual spending for a while. The key is persistence: if sentiment stays depressed for months, spending and hiring often follow.
Inflation psychology
Sentiment often falls when inflation is high because households feel the squeeze. That can feed into wage demands and policy expectations. For traders, sentiment can help contextualize whether inflation is hitting behavior.
Why markets care
Consumer demand is the bulk of the economy. If sentiment weakens while credit stress rises and savings fall, the downside tail increases — and markets may shift defensive.
Cross-checks
Pair with jobless claims, credit delinquencies, and savings. When those confirm, sentiment becomes a strong macro warning.
Current Reading
Interpreting the Signal
Best cross-checks
Watch whether spending-linked indicators (retail sales, auto sales) confirm the sentiment move. When they do, sentiment becomes macro-relevant.
Release Notes
Released monthly (often preliminary and final). Can be headline-sensitive; trend and confirmation matter most.
- Frequency: Monthly
- Unit: Index
- Source: University of Michigan