2-Year Treasury Yield
U.S. 2-year constant maturity Treasury yield, daily
The 2-year yield is the market’s closest “real-time proxy” for Fed policy expectations. It responds quickly to CPI/PCE surprises, Fed communication, and shifts in the expected path of cuts/hikes. For macro trading, DGS2 often drives the dollar, equity multiples, and volatility.
Historical 2-Year Yield Chart
Related Indicators
How to interpret the 2-year yield
Front-end sensitivity
The 2-year is dominated by expectations for the Fed Funds path over the next several quarters. It often moves more on inflation surprises and Fed language than on long-run growth.
Why it matters for equities and FX
Higher 2-year yields can tighten the discount rate and support the dollar, which can pressure risk assets. Falling 2-year yields often accompany easing expectations — supportive for duration-sensitive equities if the move isn’t driven by a growth scare.
Cuts aren’t always bullish
The 2-year can collapse when markets price aggressive cuts. That can be risk-on if inflation is falling cleanly, but risk-off if cuts are priced because recession risk is rising.
Cross-checks
Pair the 2-year with the 10-year (curve slope), high yield spreads, and NFCI. The combination helps tell you whether the market is repricing policy for good reasons or bad ones.
Current Reading
Interpreting the Signal
Best cross-check
Watch whether spreads widen as the 2-year falls. If they do, the move is more likely “growth scare.” If spreads stay tight, it can be clean disinflation easing.
Release Notes
Updated daily from Treasury yields. Expect sharp moves around CPI/PCE, payrolls, and FOMC events.
- Frequency: Daily
- Unit: Percent (%)
- Instrument: 2-year constant maturity Treasury